How we keep ourselves honest.
It is easy to build a trading tool that looks brilliant in hindsight. These are the rules we follow so the Radar can't.
Rules are frozen before the results come in
Every definition on the board, from what counts as a breakout to how Market Alpha scores a family, was written down and locked before we looked at how it performed going forward. Thresholds are not adjusted because a result looks good or bad.
Every signal is recorded when it appears
When a signal, a watchlist candidate or a market reading appears, it is written to a registry with its entry, stop, targets and context. Those fields never change afterwards. Outcomes are measured on those records, not on a replay that could quietly use later data.
Old data is labeled as old data
Historical tests are useful for finding ideas and useless for proving them, especially once the same years have been studied many times. Results from those years are marked as diagnostic. Only records made after the rules were frozen count as evidence.
History is shown as history
When the app says something like “BTC fell 10% within a week on 14% of comparable days”, that is a count of what happened before. It is not a forecast, and it is never presented as the chance of a trade working.
What each engine is allowed to claim
| Engine | What it does | Current status |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly low setup | The one setup with strong historical results. Now running on new weeks to see if it holds. | Collecting forward records |
| Scanner | Finds setups on the 4-hour chart. Every signal is labeled untested unless it belongs to a tested setup. | Untested; being recorded |
| Watchlist and breakouts | Finds long-term structures and records every breakout from them. | Being recorded |
| Market Alpha | Describes the market and warns when it deteriorates. Not a predictor. | Context only; being recorded |
When something changes, it is dated
Bug fixes happen. When one touches how signals are recorded, it gets a timestamp and an explanation in the app's change log, and records made before the fix are left exactly as they were.
Data that is late says it is late
Every source on the dashboard shows whether it is fresh, aging, stale or unavailable. Missing data is never filled in with a neutral value.